Comparison of the Graduated Random System with Historical Data

Speaking on the advantages of the Delaware Plan, former chairman of the RNC Rules Committee Tom Sansonetti declared that letting the smallest states begin the contest “allows a grassroots campaign to catch fire. The Jimmy Carter example in ‘76, the Gary Hart example from ’84, the Eugene McCarthy example for that matter in 1968.” (Center for Governmental Studies 2001, 18) The fact that the chairman of a Republican committee would refer to the campaigns of three Democrats eloquently bespeaks the bipartisan reach of this issue. Moreover, an interesting question is, if the Graduated Random System had been in place in those years, would it have been conducive to the candidacies of Eugene McCarthy, Jimmy Carter, or Gary Hart? The following figures compare the Graduated Random System with the Democratic and Republican delegate selection schedules for national conventions since 1960:

Note that the Graduated Random System faithfully reproduces the campaign profiles from 1960 to 1980, while the correlation with the 1984 campaign has somewhat less fidelity, but is still a reasonable approximation. Comparing these earlier profiles with front-loaded campaigns since 1988 underscores how much the system has deteriorated. Could a Eugene McCarthy or a Jimmy Carter have made a successful run in these years?