Flexible Campaign Strategies

How would the altered structure of rules and political opportunities under the Graduated Random System likely change the strategies and tactics of candidates in terms of timing their entry, choosing their issues, et cetera? For instance, would a candidate with big-state appeal risk coming up a loser by competing in the early small-state primaries? Given the small numbers of votes at stake, might such a candidate opt out until stage 3 or 4 or even later under the Graduated Random scheme? If a number of candidates stayed out of those early races, what kind of meaningful “test” of electoral fitness would those primaries provide absent the tougher competition that the abstaining candidate might represent?

Actually, this hypothetical scenario reinforces the virtues of the Graduated Random model, “removing some of the big trees early to allow the sprigs to grow under more favorable conditions.” However, this scenario is extremely unlikely. It is a dangerous--possibly even a foolhardy--strategy to allow one’s opponent to seize the initiative and gather momentum. It is true that candidates have occasionally opted not to contest Iowa; however, it is almost unheard of for someone to sit out both Iowa and New Hampshire. Similarly, it is improbable that a candidate--much less several--would avoid competing in the first several rounds of the Graduated Random System.

Another concern that has been raised is that the Graduated Random System’s ten time-slices (14 days) seem very tiny. In rapid sequence, they do not seem to allow much time to pull down the campaign tents and put them up again moving from state to state. However, any way one slices it, there are 50 states plus a handful of other territories. Which is better, to spread out the campaign out over three or four months, as it once was, or to implode it into a single week (from the first to the second Tuesdays in March), as it is now? The system has degenerated into two really huge slices sandwiched on top of each other. Essentially, candidates have to campaign in several dozen states in parallel. Ten time slices allows campaign strategists more latitude to choose the most effective mixture of parallel and serial efforts.