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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
INTRODUCTION
COLLAPSE OF THE TRADITIONAL SYSTEM
The Rush to Judgment
The Best that Money Can Buy
Why Iowa and New Hampshire?
THE GRADUATED RANDOM SYSTEM
The Baseline Design
The Care and Feeding of the 53-District Gorilla
ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATIONS
Maximizing Competitiveness: Too Much of a Good Thing?
Empowering Ethnic Diversity
Are Small States More Conservative?
Flexible Campaign Strategies
Maximizing Voter Turnout
Cherry-Picking Competitive States
Synchronization with State Elections
Proportional Representation vs. Winner Take All
Ranked Voting
IMPLEMENTATION ISSUES
Coordinated State Legislation
Federal Statute
Constitutional Amendment and Implementing Federal Statute
Supreme Court Challenge
National Party Rules
OTHER PRIMARY REFORM CONCEPTS
The Pre-Primary Convention Model
The All Caucuses/Conventions Model
The Two-Tier Nomination Process Model
The Proportional Phasing into Winner-Take-All Allocation Model
The Caucuses First Model
The Date Bonus Delegates Model
The National Primary Day
The Delaware Plan
The Playoff System
The Rotating Regional Plan
The Time Zone Model
The Interregional Plan
The Packwood Plan
The Regional Lottery System
The Smith Plan
COMPARISON OF THE GRADUATED RANDOM SYSTEM WITH HISTORICAL DATA
A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
CONCLUSION
REFERENCES
APPENDICES
Appendix 1: GRPP BASIC Code Listing
Appendix 2: Sample GRPPS Schedules
Appendix 3: Anomalous Ethnic Distributions in Sample Schedules
Appendix 4: Model State Bill for Implementing the Graduated Random Presidential Primary System
Appendix 5: The Graduated Random Presidential Primary and Caucus Act
Appendix 6: Options
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: The Ides of March
Figure 2: 2008 Graduated Random System Schedule
Figure 3: 2008 Graduated Random System Map--Congressional District View
Figure 4: 2008 Graduated Random System Map--Geographic View
Figure 5: Division of California
Figure 6: 2008 Baseline, Mod 1, and Mod 2 Graduated Random System Schedules
Figure 7: 2008 Baseline and Mod 2A Graduated Random System Schedules
Figure 8: 1960 Schedule and Graduated Random System Compared
Figure 9: 1964 Schedule and Graduated Random System Compared
Figure 10: 1968 Schedule and Graduated Random System Compared
Figure 11: 1976 Schedule and Graduated Random System Compared
Figure 12: 1980 Schedule and Graduated Random System Compared
Figure 13: 1984 Schedule and Graduated Random System Compared
Figure 14: 1988 Schedule and Graduated Random System Compared
Figure 15: 1992 Schedule and Graduated Random System Compared
Figure 16: 1996 Schedule and Graduated Random System Compared
Figure 17: 2000 Schedule and Graduated Random System Compared
Figure 18: 2004 Schedule and Graduated Random System Compared
Figure 19: Anomalous Ethnic Distributions in Baseline Sample Schedules, Standard Deviation
Figure 20: Anomalous Ethnic Distributions in Baseline Sample Schedules, Average Deviation
Figure 21: Anomalous Ethnic Distributions in Eligibility Pools, Baseline Graduated Random System
Figure 22: Anomalous Ethnic Distributions in Eligibility Pools, Mod 1 Graduated Random System
Figure 23: Anomalous Ethnic Distributions in Eligibility Pools, Mod 2 Graduated Random System
Figure 24: Anomalous Ethnic Distributions in Mod 2 Sample Schedules, Standard Deviation
Figure 25: Anomalous Ethnic Distributions in Mod 2 Sample Schedules, Average Deviation
Figure 26: Party Strength in Eligibility Blocks
Figure 27: Growth of Primaries Since 1960
Figure 28: 2008 National Primary Day Schedule
Figure 29: 2008 Delaware Plan Schedule
Figure 30: 2008 Delaware Plan Map--Congressional District View
Figure 31: 2008 Delaware Plan Map--Geographic View
Figure 32: 2008 Playoff System Schedule
Figure 33: 2008 Playoff System Map--Congressional District View
Figure 34: 2008 Playoff System Map--Geographic View
Figure 35: 2008 Rotating Regional Plan Schedule
Figure 36: 2008 Rotating Regional Map--Congressional District View
Figure 37: 2008 Rotating Regional Map--Geographic View
Figure 38: 2008 Time Zone Model Schedule
Figure 39: 2008 Time Zone Model Map--Congressional District View
Figure 40: 2008 Time Zone Model Map--Geographic View
Figure 41: 2008 Interregional Plan Schedule
Figure 42: 2008 Interregional Primary Map--Congressional District View
Figure 43: 2008 Interregional Primary Map--Geographic View
Figure 44: 2008 Packwood Plan Schedule
Figure 44: 2008 Packwood Plan Map--Congressional District View
Figure 45: 2008 Packwood Plan Map--Geographic View
Figure 46: 2008 Regional Lottery System Schedule
Figure 48: 2008 Regional Lottery Map--Congressional District View
Figure 49: 2008 Regional Lottery Map--Geographic View
Figure 50: 2008 Smith Plan Schedule
Figure 51: 2008 Smith Plan Map--Congressional District View
Figure 52: 2008 Smith Plan Map--Geographic View
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Ethnic Demographics of Iowa and New Hampshire
Table 2: First Round Eligibility in the Graduated Random System
Table 3: Ethnic Demographics of First-Round Eligible Jurisdictions
Table 4: Families Below Poverty Level in First-Round Eligible Jurisdictions
Table 5: 2008 Graduated Random System Sample Schedule
Table 6: Baseline and Modified Graduated Random System Eligibility
Table 7: Baseline Percent of Population Voting in Previous Rounds
Table 8: Mod 1 Percent of Population Voting in Previous Rounds
Table 9: Mod 2/2A Percent of Population Voting in Previous Rounds
Table 10: Asian and Hispanic Populations of Large States
Table 11: State and Federal Legislators by State and Party
Table 12: Ranked Voting
Table 13: Competitiveness of Presidential Nomination Campaigns, 1972-2000
Table 14: Taxonomy of Primary Reform Proposals
Table 15: 2008 Delaware Plan Schedule
Table 16: Delaware Plan and Graduated Random System Compared
Table 17: 2008 Playoff System Schedule
Table 18: 2008 Rotating Regional Plan Schedule
Table 19: Home States of Major Party Nominees Since 1988
Table 20: 2008 Time Zone Model Schedule
Table 21: 2008 Interregional Plan Schedule
Table 22: 2008 Packwood Plan Schedule
Table 23: 2008 Regional Lottery System Schedule
Table 24: 2008 Smith Plan Schedule