Face it - we're stuck with the Electoral College

Wednesday, December 29, 2004

By THOMAS GANGALE

After almost every presidential election, and particularly after close ones, someone proposes doing away with the Electoral College. This political medicine show is probably as old as the American republic itself. There have been about 700 unsuccessful attempts to abolish the Electoral College. None of these are ever serious proposals, because there is no chance of them being enacted, and the charlatans know this from the start.

So, why do politicians bother? Because it's always a crowd-pleaser, particularly in populous states such as California. The credulous yahoos in the audience applaud, since they have only a hazy idea of how their government works. This time around it's Sen. Dianne Feinstein's turn to trot out the old snake oil.

Let's look at the political science behind her miracle elixir.

To begin with, abolishing the Electoral College requires amending the Constitution, which is a two-step process. The first step has two options, but the one most often used is for each house of Congress to pass the proposed amendment by a two-thirds majority. The second step is for three-fourths of the state legislatures to ratify the proposed amendment.

Now, let's do the math. There are 538 electors in the Electoral College: one for each Congressional district (435), two for each Senate seat (100) and three for the District of Columbia. The 2000 Census counted 281 million people in the 50 states and D.C. Dividing the population by the number of electors results in an average of 523,000 people per elector.

But here's the problem. California - the most populous state- has 33.9 million people and 55 electors (53 Congressional districts plus two Senate seats). That's 616,000 Californians per elector.

Wyoming - the least populous state - has 494,000 people and three electors (one Congressional district plus two Senate seats). That's only 165,000 Wyomingites per elector. In other words, one voter in Wyoming has nearly four times the political power of one Californian.

Thomas Jefferson wrote in the Declaration of Independence that the Creator made us equal, but a few years later the Constitution re-created us unequal. Californians, in particular, are distinctly inferior. But this nation wasn't founded on the principle of one person, one vote; it was founded as a union of sovereign states.

And here is why, as long as the Constitution exists, the Electoral College will never be abolished.

Remember that, nationwide, the average number of people per elector is 523,000. In the 17 most populous states - including California - that number is higher, so these states are disadvantaged. The other 33 states, however, have a sweet deal, so why would they give it up? They wouldn't. That means that there are only 34 votes in the Senate for a constitutional amendment and 66 votes against. Senator Feinstein will need two-thirds of the Senate - 67 votes - for her amendment. How does she propose to convince 33 of her colleagues to change their votes and cut their own political throats?

But let's say that oratory wins the day, and the Senate passes Feinstein's plan. And let's stipulate that the House of Representatives also passes the amendment. Now, the second hurdle must be vaulted: three-fourths of the state legislatures. That's 38 states. But only 17 states are disadvantaged by the present system, and the other 33 like it. Do you imagine that 21 state legislatures would vote away their constituents' political advantage?

Senator Feinstein, I don't like the Electoral College either, but we're stuck with it, and you know it. This isn't rocket science, just political science. You have as much chance of changing the law of gravity and making everything fall upward.

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